Lumpy-Cane
0x76fabebab25c337546dfbc1d52e5e26e93411d80
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
95
Open notional
$8.88
Total PnL
$-927.34
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.53
$0.00
- NO
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.35
$-0.00
- NO
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.30
$0.00
- NO
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.24
$0.01
- NO
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$1.23
$0.00
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.21
$0.00
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: Other
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
11 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- YES
Will Elon tweet between 720 and 749 times August 29–September 5?
9514 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2025$0.00
$-10.20
- YES
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$1.03Jul 11, 17:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$1.33Jul 3, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP dip to $0.40 in June?$1.06Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$1.33Jun 28, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.21Jun 26, 20:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$1.30Jun 26, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$1.30Jun 25, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.23Jun 19, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.07Jun 19, 18:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.08Jun 16, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $0.40 in June?$1.06Jun 16, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.07Jun 15, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.08Jun 14, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$1.03May 23, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.35May 22, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: Other$1.01May 21, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $200 in April?$3.42May 1, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $150 in April?$1.00May 1, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?$1.56May 1, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$1.13May 1, 00:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $4.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 17:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 17:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.