False-Focus
0x770d8126ac0a62240d87a859b1051615a3f229c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$616.76
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$7.99
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
2771 shares @ 13.7¢·now 11.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$331.09
$-47.51
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
526 shares @ 28.4¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$118.34
$-31.13
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
340 shares @ 35.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$96.87
$-22.13
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
1370 shares @ 7.3¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.50
$-51.51
- YES
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
2368 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.13
$-23.99
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 35.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.67
$0.13
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
40 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.18
$-0.98
- NO
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
4545 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
2784 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-142.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$23.12Jul 23, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$1.00Jul 23, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$51.45Jul 23, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$45.58Jul 23, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$66.55Jul 23, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.27Jul 23, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.73Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.68Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.68Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.68Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.68Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.83Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$0.60Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$18.69Jul 23, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$50.00Jul 23, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$48.00Jul 22, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$1.16Jul 22, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$51.30Jul 22, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$71.66Jul 22, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$22.92Jul 22, 05:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $25.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 18:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 08:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.