Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Probability
92¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$268.2K
Liquidity
$52.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+22.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 5.1× turnover
$268.2k traded against $52.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.
Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 4d ago (to 90¢).
Show top 8 of 53 hourly moves
- 4d ago · +17.5pp → 88¢
- 4d ago · +20.0pp → 90¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 90¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 90¢
- 4d ago · +21.0pp → 89¢
- 4d ago · +19.0pp → 87¢
- 4d ago · +19.0pp → 87¢
- 4d ago · +18.5pp → 86¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
chinaReason
Question text contains "china" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump visit China by May 15?"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 16:18:20 GMT, YES is priced at 92% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +22.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 31, 2026 (2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$268.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.5M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $52.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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