Untidy-Auction
0x77387406912d1fd241d3baa0d8092eeb02c976a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$161.40
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$61.42
Win rate
81%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
114 shares @ 87.9¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$110.17
$10.17
- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
99 shares @ 22.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.36
$1.76
- YES
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
186 shares @ 21.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.41
$-18.59
- NO
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$2.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?
303 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.67
$-20.83
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
115 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.81
$-12.19
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
173 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.35
$-34.65
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- NO
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1117 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-51.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$10.15Jul 25, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?$10.09Jul 22, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$10.15Jul 22, 11:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$30.42Jul 21, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?$20.31Jul 21, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?$20.92Jul 21, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?$1.04Jul 21, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$5.18Jul 21, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.04Jul 21, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$15.00Jul 21, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$10.00Jul 21, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.00Jul 21, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.00Jul 21, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: LUA Gaming vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season$5.23Jul 21, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$10.74Jul 21, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?$20.64Jul 21, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?$6.49Jul 21, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$96.32Jul 21, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$5.07Jul 20, 13:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $15.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 13:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 23:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.