Naive-Reciprocity
0x7784f9af5d2e6525de99ff1da0641f20fb87f22a
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$4.90
Total PnL
$-5.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.07
$0.07
- NO
Next French confidence vote passes?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Any Dems convicted of voter fraud in 2025?
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Israel military action against Iran before July?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$2.00Oct 17, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$279.72Oct 17, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$280.00Oct 16, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$282.71Oct 16, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$283.00Oct 16, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext French confidence vote passes?$1.00Sep 24, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$1.00Sep 24, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$1.00Sep 24, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.00Sep 24, 13:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?$1.02Sep 24, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?$2.11Sep 24, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?$2.41Sep 24, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMYoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?$3.03Sep 24, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Iran before July?$1.00Apr 2, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYAny Dems convicted of voter fraud in 2025?$2.00Apr 2, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?$2.00Apr 2, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?$2.00Apr 2, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?$1.02Apr 2, 04:15 UTC
- REDEEMZelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday?$1.02Mar 28, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMGold missing from Fort Knox?$1.18Mar 28, 04:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $31.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 13, 09:32 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 17, 06:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.