Private-Patrolling
0x7789957157a13aa3610e26d61ef8f99317b7a280
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-3.8K
Realised
$1.7K
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1200 shares @ 89.3¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.2K
$81.60
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
600 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$599.69
$19.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
300 shares @ 95.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$286.65
$-0.45
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 67.2¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$252.00
$50.29
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
300 shares @ 76.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$232.50
$4.50
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
300 shares @ 69.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$204.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
100 shares @ 90.9¢·now 90.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$90.30
$-0.60
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?
100 shares @ 46.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$46.50
$0.50
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
30 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$25.05
$0.15
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
55 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$5.22
$0.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?$4.95Aug 1, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?$46.00Aug 1, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$63.51Aug 1, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$27.51Aug 1, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$287.72Aug 1, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$599.38Aug 1, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$8.30Aug 1, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$16.60Aug 1, 09:51 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by July 31?$3.0KAug 1, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.2KAug 1, 06:04 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.41Aug 1, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$300.00Jul 31, 23:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$300.00Jul 31, 23:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$50.00Jul 31, 23:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?$300.00Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$3.0KJul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$1.8KJul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$3.1KJul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?$300.00Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
$9.7K · 62% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $894.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 22:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 13:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.