Warped-Follower
0x780348df057083860739666e8b7614d91e9316ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$380.53
Total PnL
$-16.96
Realised
$-7.39
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
385 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$380.53
$1.54
- NO
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
- NO
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
4 shares @ 79.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- NO
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
3 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in July 2026?
2 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.62
- NO
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.94
- YES
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
1 shares @ 87.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?$379.27Aug 10, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$80.07Aug 3, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in July 2026?$3.80Aug 1, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$76.07Jul 28, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$9.08Jul 21, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$15.58Jul 21, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$107.33Jul 20, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$61.72Jul 20, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$6.63Jul 20, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$73.81Jul 20, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$7.99Jul 19, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$13.64Jul 19, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$6.00Jul 19, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$58.19Jul 18, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$69.66Jul 18, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$91.63Jul 17, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in July 2026?$0.62Jul 11, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in July 2026?$2.66Jul 11, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?$1.96Jul 11, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$24.82Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $35.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 07:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 12:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.