North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
Probability
28¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+7.5pp
24h Vol
$1.9K
Liquidity
$19.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 28¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 104.9h
- 15:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 28¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 28¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 25¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 25¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 27¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 21¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 18¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 22¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 20¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 22¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 24¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 26¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 20¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).