Watery-Bribery
0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$75.9K
Total PnL
$-19.8K
Realised
$2.2K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
41122 shares @ 83.8¢·now 76.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$31.6K
$-2.8K
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
29745 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$28.9K
$327.61
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
13782 shares @ 95.7¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$13.3K
$160.40
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
1091 shares @ 78.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$190.97
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
584 shares @ 74.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$329.66
$-104.08
- YES
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
309 shares @ 76.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$301.09
$65.28
- YES
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
9837 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$290.20
$16.94
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
637 shares @ 19.4¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$111.55
$-11.94
- YES
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1170 shares @ 57.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.58
$-672.92
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
1 shares @ 32.5¢·now 33.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.44
$0.01
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$6.40Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$2.15Jul 23, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$28.87Jul 23, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$15.13Jul 23, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.4KJul 23, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$7.7KJul 23, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$2.6KJul 23, 17:48 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$16.92Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$29.4KJul 22, 02:24 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.41Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$50.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$21.73Jul 21, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$5.5KJul 21, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$2.50Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$43.45Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$2.50Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$49.40Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$10.0KJul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$2.4KJul 21, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$5.7KJul 21, 18:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
74%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$15.6K · 31% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.5K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 19:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.