Admired-Map
0x791d04e8cc262d83ee00bf94fa6a61a1b134d914
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-150.82
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
8800 shares @ 16.8¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$588.92
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
1800 shares @ 10.2¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.00
$42.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
312 shares @ 11.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$138.85
$104.03
- YES
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
28153 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.54
$-132.88
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
1711 shares @ 5.9¢·now 5.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$86.38
$-14.62
- YES
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?
550 shares @ 21.4¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$49.50
$-68.50
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
878 shares @ 5.3¢·now 5.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.22
$-1.82
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
586 shares @ 15.5¢·now 6.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.95
$-52.09
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
726 shares @ 4.3¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$38.86
$7.20
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
143 shares @ 17.6¢·now 19.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.54
$2.28
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$18.36Jul 29, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$3.96Jul 28, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$217.60Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$0.02Jul 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$4.65Jul 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$4.53Jul 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$20.50Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$21.70Jul 28, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.37Jul 27, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$5.49Jul 27, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$9.33Jul 27, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.34Jul 27, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$12.73Jul 24, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$22.77Jul 24, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$16.16Jul 24, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$2.64Jul 23, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$11.62Jul 23, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$1.04Jul 23, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$5.40Jul 23, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$2.82Jul 23, 17:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $15.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 17:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.