Offbeat-Menorah
0x79d980791ab82aff891eee32d41b4e1fbb07baec
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$165.7K
Total PnL
$-19.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
30000 shares @ 66.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$19.0K
$-750.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
15620 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.0K
$78.10
- NO
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
14300 shares @ 85.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.9K
$717.53
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13300 shares @ 75.9¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.1K
$1.0K
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
9300 shares @ 81.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.7K
$1.1K
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
9600 shares @ 77.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.5K
$1.1K
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
9000 shares @ 82.8¢·now 91.2¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$8.2K
$756.23
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
9100 shares @ 83.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.5K
$-115.48
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
9000 shares @ 79.7¢·now 75.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.8K
$-338.40
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
6700 shares @ 77.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.0K
$837.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.47Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$9.0KJul 11, 06:03 UTC
- YIELD$1.47Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$4.5KJul 10, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$2.04Jul 10, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$4.58Jul 10, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$88.00Jul 10, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$1.47Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- REWARD$7.48Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$1.06Jul 9, 21:39 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$5.39Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$5.05Jul 9, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$8.16Jul 9, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$5.0KJul 9, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$183.27Jul 9, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$519.24Jul 9, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$8.64Jul 9, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$1.09Jul 9, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$336.98Jul 9, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$431.49Jul 9, 11:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $856.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 09:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.