0x7a04a0cf59e71164f6865d7b321ce7a42b0de4f2
0x7a04a0cf59e71164f6865d7b321ce7a42b0de4f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
58
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-325.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
4400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?
1010 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 16?
420 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-11.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 15?
407 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.55
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
400 shares @ 20.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-81.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?
222 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 15?
208 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-14.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?
121 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16?
90 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-38.94
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?$15.52May 17, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?$2.33May 17, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?$9.31May 16, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?$87.59May 16, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 16?$0.00May 16, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m?$0.38May 16, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?$3.02May 16, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 16?$5.99May 16, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?$8.02May 16, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 16?$0.02May 16, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 16?$0.04May 16, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16?$0.56May 16, 12:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 16?$7.79May 16, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 16?$29.91May 16, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?$0.26May 16, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 16?$7.26May 16, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?$2.97May 16, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?$3.85May 16, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16?$25.65May 16, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 16?$0.05May 16, 10:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 05:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 11:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.