EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?

Probability

17¢

1h

+5.0pp

24h

-18.5pp

24h Vol

$14.2K

Liquidity

$3.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 60h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to how much "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend
Link
the-numbers.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
17¢
May 12, 2026, 23:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 00:18 UTC
updated 00:18:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T00-18Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 19pp over 24h

    Now 17¢; +5.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.9× turnover

    $14.2k traded against $3.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 60h.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 60 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 18, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 59.7h

    HIGH
  • 00:18Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 60h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-18.5pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 21:00 (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
  • 00:00 · -16.0pp → 17¢
  • 23:00 · -21.0pp → 12¢
  • 21:00 · -24.5pp → 8¢
  • 20:00 · -17.5pp → 15¢
  • 18:00 · -18.5pp → 12¢
  • 16:00 · -14.0pp → 17¢
  • 15:00 · -14.5pp → 17¢
  • 11:00 · +7.0pp → 33¢
updated 00:18:27 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 00:18:27 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same event"Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

box office

Reason

Question text contains "box office" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 00:18:27 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -18.5pp in the last 24 hours, +5.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.the-numbers.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$14.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $16.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket