0x7a1630b1f839e4423f437dd2a8e2164194ce518b
0x7a1630b1f839e4423f437dd2a8e2164194ce518b
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$153.64
Total PnL
$13.84
Realised
$36.21
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?
60 shares @ 49.6¢·now 74.7¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$45.18
$15.18
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?
62 shares @ 48.4¢·now 55.3¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$34.28
$4.28
- NO
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
34 shares @ 44.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.57
$9.57
- YES
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?
126 shares @ 15.8¢·now 18.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$22.72
$2.73
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
37 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.44
$-0.56
- YES
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?
24 shares @ 21.2¢·now 22.6¢·exp Sep 17, 2026$5.33
$0.33
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
263 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.13
$0.13
- YES
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
30 shares @ 32.8¢·now 14.3¢·exp Jan 18, 2027$4.37
$-5.63
- YES
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$2.61
$0.61
- YES
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
154 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.