Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
Probability
37¢
1h
-1.7pp
24h
+16.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$892.43
Probability (last 7 days)
+20.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 17pp over 24h
Now 37¢; -1.7pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6414h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 57.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6413.6h
- 18:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6414h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+16.4pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.8pp at 15:00 (to 38¢).
Show all 30 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:21 · +19.9pp → 37¢
- 17:00 · +20.0pp → 37¢
- 15:00 · +20.8pp → 38¢
- 14:00 · +16.7pp → 34¢
- 12:00 · +17.2pp → 34¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 09:00 · +3.4pp → 21¢
- 08:00 · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 06:00 · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 05:00 · +4.7pp → 21¢
- 03:00 · +3.9pp → 21¢
- 02:00 · +4.1pp → 21¢
- 00:00 · +3.8pp → 21¢
- 22:00 · +5.6pp → 21¢
- 21:00 · +4.2pp → 21¢
- 20:00 · +4.2pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +3.4pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +3.8pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +3.1pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +3.1pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +3.4pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +4.6pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +3.3pp → 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 18, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to thAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowstatcan.gc.ca
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (57.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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