Frosty-Custard-Organisation
0x7a5cb991e181d3010c04c12d6a17a0b937ce767b
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$295.06
Total PnL
$-236.21
Realised
$-1.39
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?
50 shares @ 92.1¢·now 69.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.92
$-11.13
- NO
Dreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch?
40 shares @ 96.0¢·now 79.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$31.92
$-6.48
- NO
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$27.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$22.00
$-7.50
- NO
Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?
41 shares @ 60.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$17.84
$-6.76
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.00
$-12.50
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 75.4¢·now 36.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.54
$-15.62
- NO
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
20 shares @ 82.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$13.00
$-3.40
- NO
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?
50 shares @ 48.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.00
$-14.00
- NO
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
20 shares @ 77.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.80
$-5.60
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Sabrina Ionescu have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA 2026 regular season?$19.49Jul 29, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sabrina Ionescu have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA 2026 regular season?$19.56Jul 29, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?$16.40Jul 29, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$2.07Jul 29, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$2.20Jul 29, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?$35.50Jul 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026?$1.95Jul 29, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYPrintr FDV above $100M one day after launch?$41.00Jul 29, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$15.40Jul 29, 07:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 31?$11.15Jul 29, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?$15.46Jul 29, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 18, 2026?$7.20Jul 29, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 17, 2026?$6.80Jul 29, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 30?$0.38Jul 29, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$24.00Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?$17.78Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLStandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?$1.72Jul 29, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 30?$6.27Jul 29, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?$1.89Jul 29, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$17.10Jul 29, 07:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $13.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.