Thrifty-Shallot
0x7a6192ea6815d3177e978dd3f8c38be5f575af24
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$110.3K
Total PnL
$-31.6K
Realised
$2.9K
Win rate
80%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
22000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.6K
$6.6K
- NO
Iran leadership change by April 30?
7296 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.3K
$4.0K
- NO
Iran leadership change by May 31?
6608 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.6K
$3.8K
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
6078 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.1K
$3.8K
- NO
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
4548 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.5K
$2.1K
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
6028 shares @ 30.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.5K
$2.7K
- NO
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
5349 shares @ 11.7¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.4K
$3.8K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
22000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.4K
$-6.6K
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5689 shares @ 50.1¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.2K
$1.3K
- NO
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?
3303 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.3K
$1.9K
Recent activity
- YIELD$2.58Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.59Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$2.59Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.59Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$2.59Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$2.59Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.61Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.60Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.