Thin-Nuke
0x7a7781fb81392e8f651f5566c1191e10fc20a15c
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
161
Open notional
$7.41
Total PnL
$-546.96
Realised
$37.64
Win rate
85%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 161- YES
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
2658 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.99
$-16.79
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?
16 shares @ 7.4¢·now 13.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.16
$1.00
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
10 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.85
- YES
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.51
$-0.57
- YES
Will Zootopia 2 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?
2452 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1219 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- NO
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?
1061 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
982 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
953 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-32.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?$1.22Jul 26, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.00Jul 20, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$0.06Jul 14, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$3.44Jul 14, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$1.76Jul 12, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?$2.16Jul 12, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?$0.00Jul 12, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.07Jul 12, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.18Jul 12, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.63Jul 12, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.97Jul 9, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?$0.14Jul 3, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?$0.22Jul 3, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?$0.55Jul 3, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?$0.19Jul 3, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$1.37Jul 2, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 29?$1.11Jun 29, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 29?$0.99Jun 29, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 29?$0.05Jun 29, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 29?$1.54Jun 29, 12:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 21:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 19:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.