Roasted-Crossstitch
0x7afb239dabdd549d09ccd3e6cc910958894b61ea
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-10.7K
Realised
$163.72
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?
761 shares @ 72.1¢·now 85.6¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$651.17
$102.32
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
980 shares @ 50.5¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$426.30
$-68.90
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
1450 shares @ 31.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$355.25
$-94.75
- NO
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$240.00
$40.00
- NO
Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31?
140 shares @ 72.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$126.70
$25.90
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
121 shares @ 42.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$120.44
$69.50
- NO
Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?
94 shares @ 53.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$93.81
$43.99
- YES
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?
476 shares @ 21.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$83.33
$-16.67
- YES
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?
65 shares @ 84.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$64.82
$9.90
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
19 shares @ 51.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$13.46
$3.65
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$3.1KJul 31, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?$8.25Jul 31, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$83.63Jul 31, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$90.75Jul 31, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$85.24Jul 31, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$263.53Jul 31, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$66.15Jul 31, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$715.59Jul 31, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$28.93Jul 31, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$10.68Jul 31, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$109.04Jul 31, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?$5.00Jul 31, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31?$102.21Jul 31, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$98.41Jul 31, 01:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 31, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.68Jul 31, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$71.19Jul 30, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$11.41Jul 30, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$15.59Jul 30, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$58.00Jul 30, 16:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $156.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 17:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.