Uncomfortable-Western
0x7b415a4343112d0f674bd587b6bc3935478e50a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$83.44
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-891.78
Win rate
2%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- NO
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week?
81 shares @ 37.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$27.97
$-2.03
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
393 shares @ 8.9¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.54
$-10.50
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
123 shares @ 8.1¢·now 6.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.33
$-1.67
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
31 shares @ 31.9¢·now 17.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$5.46
$-4.54
- YES
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 30.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.33
$-4.67
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
204 shares @ 4.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.18
$-5.82
- YES
Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
45 shares @ 8.8¢·now 6.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.76
$-1.24
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-3.22
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?
83 shares @ 18.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
42 shares @ 36.0¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.73
$-14.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week?$30.76Aug 23, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$9.93Aug 16, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$9.55Aug 16, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$19.51Aug 16, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$9.12Aug 16, 13:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Aug 16, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$0.00Aug 16, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$15.83Aug 16, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$15.54Aug 15, 23:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$0.00Aug 15, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$10.64Aug 15, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$20.00Aug 15, 23:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$30.00Aug 15, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$10.35Aug 15, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$15.53Aug 15, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$10.57Aug 14, 08:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$30.61Aug 14, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$15.54Aug 14, 08:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
56 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $12.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 23:54 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 11:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.