Gregarious-Return
0x7c30ee60b7f53f80211ca65df99d48cce53b7673
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
104
Open notional
$61.4K
Total PnL
$-22.4K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
41%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 104- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
17674 shares @ 74.5¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$15.6K
$2.4K
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
11600 shares @ 84.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.7K
$902.57
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
9000 shares @ 90.3¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.6K
$447.00
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
5372 shares @ 77.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$242.18
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
4292 shares @ 82.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.7K
$158.89
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
2295 shares @ 84.7¢·now 93.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$199.84
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
4600 shares @ 49.6¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.1K
$-144.97
- NO
Will Micron (MU) close above $1,220 end of July?
2000 shares @ 91.1¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.9K
$71.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
3961 shares @ 40.8¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.5K
$-130.11
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1700 shares @ 91.0¢·now 75.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.3K
$-262.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of July 27 2026?$34.43Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 27 2026?$360.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of July 27 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?$374.78Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?$0.30Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 27 2026?$279.75Jul 28, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of July 27 2026?$91.51Jul 28, 12:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?$857.22Jul 28, 12:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$102.50Jul 27, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?$485.79Jul 27, 08:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)$40.00Jul 26, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$20.08Jul 26, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$178.32Jul 26, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-07-26?$72.36Jul 26, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$110.84Jul 26, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$138.55Jul 26, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.79Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)$35.80Jul 25, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$6.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $213.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 15:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.