Likely-Independent
0x7c3755b598e72e341cfda9e12b3b75648b615b82
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
55
Open notional
$13.14
Total PnL
$-194.85
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.27
$1.27
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
79 shares @ 6.3¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.06
$-1.94
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
16 shares @ 19.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.13
$-0.87
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.35
$-3.65
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.16
$-0.84
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.15
$-0.85
- YES
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
73 shares @ 5.5¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.02
$-2.97
- NO
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31?
2232 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?
849 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 22, 12:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.