Mountainous-Defense
0x7c3941fb6c074f3796af11d49a00aa92947df4f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$837.24
Total PnL
$1.3K
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
17%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
471 shares @ 84.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$459.46
$63.82
- YES
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
860 shares @ 23.1¢·now 27.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$231.77
$33.53
- NO
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
108 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.52
$2.16
- YES
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31?
217 shares @ 24.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$44.48
$-7.59
- YES
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
1568 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-162.54
- NO
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
570 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-262.00
- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
569 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-39.00
- YES
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?
415 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-143.28
- YES
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?
335 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-99.80
- NO
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
269 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A$62.92Aug 13, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A$20.36Aug 13, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A$20.37Aug 13, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$0.00Aug 13, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.00Aug 13, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.07Aug 13, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.00Aug 13, 08:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.00Aug 13, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$5.30Aug 13, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$5.27Aug 13, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.00Aug 13, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$5.31Aug 13, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$3.21Aug 13, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$0.00Aug 13, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$3.27Aug 13, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$4.54Aug 13, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.26Aug 13, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.24Aug 13, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.27Aug 13, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$5.25Aug 13, 08:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $24.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 11:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 16:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.