Needy-Bouquet
0x7cebbff231678b1b5c6a4f05955092a9c255a8dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
156
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-438.58
Realised
$6.29
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 156- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27?
957 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-35.19
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
365 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on November 26?
287 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 28?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on November 28?
243 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 26?
220 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
162 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or below on December 5?
149 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 27-28°F on December 5?
130 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 29?
125 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-19?$1.96Jun 19, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-18?$1.15Jun 18, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-18?$1.02Jun 18, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win on 2026-06-17?$1.12Jun 18, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16?$4.58Jun 15, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?$0.06Jun 15, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?$0.82Jun 15, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?$2.46Jun 15, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?$1.24Jun 15, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?$2.97Jun 14, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14?$1.00Jun 13, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14?$2.00Jun 13, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13?$0.03Jun 13, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14?$2.07Jun 13, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13?$1.04Jun 13, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13?$2.06Jun 13, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13?$0.04Jun 12, 23:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13?$1.96Jun 12, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners$1.01Jun 12, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13?$1.35Jun 12, 07:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 04:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 03:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.