Vicious-Plywood
0x7d56fd701009d8528fde2841aaed3f0e759ef8d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$52.59
Total PnL
$-865.45
Realised
$-174.64
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
102 shares @ 58.6¢·now 50.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.19
$-8.81
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
36 shares @ 11.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$-2.60
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by February 28, 2026?
2541 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-179.27
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?
1153 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-127.40
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
615 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?
600 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
508 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-76.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?
459 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?
454 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-17.77
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?$23.85Mar 28, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?$1.00Mar 24, 17:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?$0.00Mar 23, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?$4.55Mar 23, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorth Korea missile test/launch by March 31?$1.00Mar 17, 04:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$0.00Mar 17, 04:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.03Mar 17, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.00Mar 17, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?$1.00Mar 17, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?$0.85Mar 17, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?$4.22Mar 17, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?$1.00Mar 17, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?$1.00Mar 17, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?$1.40Mar 17, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 17, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$2.00Mar 17, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$2.00Mar 17, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$1.60Mar 17, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?$7.44Mar 17, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$1.00Mar 1, 07:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $7.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 08:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.