Thrifty-Cost
0x7d58f89de0070ec4f34dd9c693a13acac4d31c3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$279.67
Total PnL
$14.82
Realised
$5.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
191 shares @ 50.2¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$161.47
$65.57
- NO
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
90 shares @ 33.5¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.85
$26.85
- NO
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
292 shares @ 30.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.82
$-62.97
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
25 shares @ 64.5¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.33
$7.33
- DOWN
Canada's population Up or Down this year?
17 shares @ 60.2¢·now 79.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$13.21
$3.21
- YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.86
- NO
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
13 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.31
- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
11 shares @ 47.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$15.00Jul 6, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$11.00Jul 1, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$5.00Jun 30, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?$5.12Jun 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$10.67Jun 23, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$5.00Jun 21, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$4.60Jun 3, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$5.00Jun 2, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$5.13May 30, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$10.00May 27, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$10.00May 22, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$10.00May 19, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$1.04May 13, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$3.90May 13, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$4.94May 11, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$9.43May 8, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?$0.00May 8, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.78May 8, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.64May 7, 14:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $7.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 06:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 13:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.