Canada's population Up or Down this year?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$18.87
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 8823h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 8823.1h
- 08:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 8823h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 43¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.0pp at 2d ago (to 52¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.