0x7d64548cb13ea5a5883d524a0439b9340d4af001
0x7d64548cb13ea5a5883d524a0439b9340d4af001
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
102
Open notional
$7.50
Total PnL
$-4.61
Realised
$0.11
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026?
10 shares @ 1.4¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.34
$0.19
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?
36 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$0.12
- YES
Will Solana dip to $50 June 22-28?
10 shares @ 1.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.21
$0.09
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
16 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.20
$0.09
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?
5 shares @ 2.7¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.17
$0.04
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?
48 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.17
$0.02
- YES
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
8 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.17
$0.02
- OPENAI
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?
7 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.16
$0.02
- YES
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?
36 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.16
$0.02
- NO
No one announced as next James Bond?
7 shares @ 1.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.16
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26?$0.16Jun 25, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 26?$0.14Jun 25, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 26?$0.13Jun 25, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYZamora vs. Satterfield: Match O/U 22.5$0.14Jun 25, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYExsted vs. Kuhar: Match O/U 21.5$0.14Jun 24, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 25?$0.12Jun 24, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?$0.14Jun 24, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYExsted vs. Kuhar: Match O/U 22.5$0.14Jun 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExsted vs. Kuhar: Match O/U 23.5$0.14Jun 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal?$0.14Jun 24, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30?$0.05Jun 24, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet 2 Winner: Exsted vs Kuhar$0.03Jun 24, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet 2 Winner: Exsted vs Kuhar$0.09Jun 24, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026?$0.14Jun 24, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26?$0.10Jun 24, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26?$0.21Jun 24, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Haiti?$0.15Jun 24, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$0.13Jun 24, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0.06Jun 24, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28?$0.14Jun 24, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 17:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 01:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.