GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$13.1K

Liquidity

$27.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5980.3h

    LOW
  • 19:42Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
NATOOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Alerts

¢
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