Quixotic-Story
0x7dc984968bae34a9cb75380e8265b26a9645525e
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$342.34
Total PnL
$-658.53
Realised
$24.83
Win rate
55%
100 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 30%-32%?
136 shares @ 7.3¢·now 18.2¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$24.75
$14.82
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
76 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.50
$-0.38
- YES
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
62 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp May 31, 2027$9.30
$-0.62
- YES
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?
108 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.53
$-1.07
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.50
$-2.50
- YES
Trump out as President by July 31?
769 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.31
$-2.69
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
107 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.92
$-1.60
- YES
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.50
$1.50
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
66 shares @ 15.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$6.27
$-3.63
- YES
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
51 shares @ 19.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.11
$-3.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?$2.40Jul 2, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.47Jul 2, 02:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.64Jul 2, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$1.04Jul 2, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?$4.97Jul 2, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?$2.00Jul 2, 02:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$0.04Jul 2, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$2.41Jul 2, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?$0.10Jul 2, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?$4.83Jul 2, 01:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$0.86Jul 2, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$4.41Jul 2, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$0.59Jul 2, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.24Jul 2, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$0.27Jul 2, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$4.94Jul 2, 01:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$4.76Jul 2, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$4.30Jul 2, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 2, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.08Jul 2, 01:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 100 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
100 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 02:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 100 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.