Outgoing-Upper
0x7dcd49650604be468a4b4c9bc96a0ab8880ed7e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.5K
Realised
$25.08
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 26?
18000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
3086 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
1673 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 30?
1162 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
1022 shares @ 48.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-492.21
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
917 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-109.59
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
891 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-492.36
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
822 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-492.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
751 shares @ 65.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-493.66
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$25.12Jul 13, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$25.82Jul 13, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$27.12Jul 13, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$25.59Jul 13, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$25.98Jul 13, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$25.66Jul 13, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$31.06Jul 13, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$25.59Jul 13, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$27.47Jul 13, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$26.00Jul 13, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$28.81Jul 13, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$26.03Jul 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$11.92Jul 13, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$29.94Jul 13, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$25.93Jul 13, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$25.42Jul 7, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$25.16Jul 7, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00May 1, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00May 1, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$1.04Apr 29, 22:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $101.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 10:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 09:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.