Lumpy-Object
0x7e484818b473e9fdff72ce861ac258afde451bf2
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$216.41
Total PnL
$-185.41
Realised
$208.28
Win rate
24%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
82 shares @ 54.7¢·now 55.0¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$45.22
$0.22
- YES
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
261 shares @ 6.1¢·now 16.4¢·exp Jan 8, 2027$43.01
$26.98
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
169 shares @ 17.1¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.77
$-1.10
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?
198 shares @ 5.1¢·now 8.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.80
$5.80
- YES
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?
51 shares @ 43.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$12.79
$-9.21
- YES
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
145 shares @ 6.9¢·now 8.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.75
$1.75
- NO
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
21 shares @ 62.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2026$9.82
$-3.43
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?
207 shares @ 4.8¢·now 4.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.09
$-0.91
- YES
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
150 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$6.75
$-2.25
- YES
Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?
76 shares @ 18.5¢·now 7.2¢·exp Sep 27, 2026$5.49
$-8.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?$45.81Aug 19, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of August 17 2026?$34.67Aug 19, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?$54.41Aug 19, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$10.37Aug 18, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?$22.00Aug 18, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$26.72Aug 18, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Jaime Faria vs Adam Walton$27.78Aug 18, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLPrague 2: Florian Broska vs Sean Cuenin$43.57Aug 18, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYPrague 2: Florian Broska vs Sean Cuenin$27.51Aug 17, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 17?$67.34Aug 17, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?$26.83Aug 17, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$26.90Aug 17, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?$6.30Aug 16, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 17?$40.82Aug 16, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?$37.48Aug 16, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?$39.51Aug 16, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$9.34Aug 16, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$26.30Aug 16, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?$10.48Aug 16, 00:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$76.58Aug 16, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
24% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $23.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 14:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 11:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.