Kind-Deposition
0x7e8021a1a5ccf5ba9a65503aff69c6448b5cc229
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.4K
Realised
$-315.31
Win rate
9%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
574781 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.3K
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
30000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
28764 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-199.91
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
11287 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-138.46
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
7345 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-99.98
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?
6875 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
5750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?
4578 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-215.98
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
3982 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?$0.00Jun 2, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMWas the Fox News guest wearing a mask?$0.00Jun 2, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMGTA VI released before June 2026?$0.00Jun 2, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$5.00May 30, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?$5.00May 30, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 30, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$2.86May 30, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$3.00May 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$5.00May 29, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 29, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$6.00May 29, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$5.00May 29, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$0.97May 29, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$0.00May 29, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$5.00May 29, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$0.00May 29, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$0.00May 29, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$0.00May 29, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$3.00May 29, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$0.47May 29, 20:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $13.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 21:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 11:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.