Noisy-Promise
0x7ed72a3367941b298e459b601908303b806d1ebc
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-122.83
Realised
$-13.68
Win rate
63%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 26?
250 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 26?
120 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29?
115 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.58
- YES
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap?
114 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
- YES
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?
85 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 31?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C or below on May 29?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill EUR/USD hit 1.35 (High) in 2026?$1.04Jun 15, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.51Jun 15, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mateusz Gamrot fight Charles Oliveira next?$0.02Jun 15, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.03Jun 1, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$2.36May 31, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 1?$0.31May 31, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sunshine Silver's market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?$0.52May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 1?$0.60May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2?$0.83May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 1?$0.08May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 1?$0.41May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLLes Wexner charged by June 30?$0.40May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 1?$0.16May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June?$1.63May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.32May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1?$0.23May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May?$0.21May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1?$1.59May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?$0.04May 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 31?$0.01May 31, 19:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 11:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 16:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.