Les Wexner charged by June 30?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$1.70
Liquidity
$10.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $10.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1563.2h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at 2d ago (to 8¢).
Show all 23 hour-by-hour ticks
- 06:00 · -4.5pp → 8¢
- 05:00 · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 03:00 · -4.5pp → 8¢
- 02:00 · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 00:00 · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leslie Wexner between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.