Distorted-Scooter
0x7fbc878b45fbc9b40a5686beb274697a024d8a45
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$97.13
Total PnL
$-472.45
Realised
$42.98
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
55 shares @ 21.8¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$17.05
$5.07
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
320 shares @ 4.0¢·now 4.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.12
$0.29
- YES
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
167 shares @ 2.1¢·now 7.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$11.82
$8.37
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
23 shares @ 34.3¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.67
$1.67
- YES
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
20 shares @ 24.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2027$7.20
$2.40
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?
79 shares @ 6.4¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$7.13
$2.07
- YES
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
41 shares @ 1.8¢·now 10.7¢·exp Jan 8, 2027$4.41
$3.67
- YES
Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 9.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.90
$1.20
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%?
19 shares @ 16.1¢·now 17.8¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$3.39
$0.33
- YES
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
13 shares @ 18.0¢·now 25.3¢·exp Jan 19, 2027$3.17
$0.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill South African inflation be less than 2.6% in 2026?$1.04Jul 23, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?$21.50Jul 23, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 2.5%?$1.38Jul 23, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$9.76Jul 23, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?$0.90Jul 23, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$0.22Jul 23, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?$0.46Jul 23, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$0.42Jul 23, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?$0.90Jul 23, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%?$3.06Jul 23, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$1.26Jul 23, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$4.63Jul 23, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$0.73Jul 23, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$0.42Jul 23, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$0.42Jul 23, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$0.01Jul 23, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$1.56Jul 23, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 23?$2.06Jul 23, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$0.65Jul 23, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$0.65Jul 23, 07:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 20:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 15:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.