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MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Jan 19, 2027

Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?

Probability

49¢

1h

-3.1pp

24h

-5.7pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6444.1h

    LOW
  • 11:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6444h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:53Price

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -7.3pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -16.6pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -12.1pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -18.4pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -12.2pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 01:00Price

    Probability down -12.8pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -11.2pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -13.7pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -19.4pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -16.9pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.2pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -25.3pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -29.6pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -31.4pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.4pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.8pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -17.8pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -25.3pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -34.6pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.6pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.6pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report. The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 19, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (36.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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