Light-Reunion
0x801ba46b0e7ba3f82e6a3cfcedb436318e43e036
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$11.4K
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$4.0K
Win rate
92%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
453954 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.6K
$226.98
- YES
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
557856 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.4K
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
199996 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.1K
$-299.99
- YES
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
190419 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$856.88
$-463.10
- YES
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
216505 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$757.77
$-84.00
- YES
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
175700 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$614.95
$-966.35
- YES
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
136590 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$614.66
$-18.99
- YES
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
161641 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$565.74
$-404.10
- YES
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
318921 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$478.38
$-1.4K
- YES
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
153265 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$383.16
$-536.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.02Jul 28, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 18:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.