PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 7, 2028

Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$85.6K

Liquidity

$1.6M

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $85.6k traded against $1.6M of visible liquidity (0.05× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 22230h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 22230.3h

    LOW
  • 17:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 22230h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Nov 7, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket