Daring-Disaster
0x802928b95f6abf16c8436ff50df3c2cba5c8bafc
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$257.44
Realised
$-31.82
Win rate
36%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
386 shares @ 56.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$384.55
$167.71
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
364 shares @ 34.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$364.44
$237.37
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
248 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$248.31
$22.35
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
220 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$219.70
$114.24
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
184 shares @ 78.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$181.00
$37.82
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
156 shares @ 64.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$136.67
$35.65
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
128 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$127.75
$23.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
118 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$118.18
$34.27
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
40 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$40.00
$12.40
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
40 shares @ 57.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$37.04
$14.46
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$2.92Jul 26, 02:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.28Jul 26, 02:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.39Jul 26, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.25Jul 26, 02:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.92Jul 26, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.35Jul 26, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.36Jul 26, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$1.27Jul 26, 02:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$1.36Jul 24, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?$0.17Jul 24, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$0.01Jul 24, 03:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$6.11Jul 23, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$6.12Jul 23, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$3.21Jul 23, 20:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 22:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.