Foolish-Spleen
0x802e4816a105550558d5a53aba21c978791ce4a8
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-87.58
Realised
$15.17
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7500 shares @ 4.9¢·now 14.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.1K
$711.80
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
83 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$70.97
$2.90
- YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
45 shares @ 78.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$43.06
$7.96
- YES
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
2814 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.51
- YES
Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?
1300 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-78.00
- YES
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
1100 shares @ 42.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-469.19
- YES
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
525 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-34.43
- YES
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
500 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-11.90
- NO
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
250 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will Saint Louis win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
211 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.02Jul 11, 05:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMMexico vs. England: Team to Advance$3.04Jul 6, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Team to Advance$2.12Jul 6, 02:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $10.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.