Arid-Story
0x804dceb3e17ff06fdbbb9599d8cad3016100e457
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$6.57
Total PnL
$-86.95
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
54 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.35
$-0.40
- NO
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
90 shares @ 6.7¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.22
$-2.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
9501 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
3712 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-37.12
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?
824 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
132 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
19 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-9.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
19 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$48.39May 17, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$3.92May 10, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.00May 10, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$26.70May 10, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$5.32May 10, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00May 10, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$5.32May 10, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$5.32May 10, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.00May 10, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$5.35May 10, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$5.33May 10, 20:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$11.90May 10, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$5.20May 10, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?$5.24May 10, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$15.52May 10, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin not meet?$6.00May 10, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$0.00May 9, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$26.00May 9, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$25.00May 9, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$8.99May 9, 03:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $12.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 20:36 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 10:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".