Sane-Pan
0x809205fb1c91f746b9703ca412c4fdd0435db8a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$189.03
Realised
$50.00
Win rate
56%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
385 shares @ 31.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$213.68
$94.33
- NO
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$199.10
$99.10
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
360 shares @ 53.5¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$160.42
$-32.64
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
293 shares @ 37.7¢·now 52.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$153.84
$43.26
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
244 shares @ 44.5¢·now 47.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$115.87
$7.27
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
185 shares @ 68.5¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$115.79
$-11.06
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 27.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$108.75
$41.25
- NO
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
96 shares @ 62.4¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.12
$24.46
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
135 shares @ 44.4¢·now 56.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$75.43
$15.59
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
73 shares @ 66.5¢·now 88.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.18
$16.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 30, 01:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 23:20 UTC
- SPLITWill Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$200.00Jul 29, 22:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$4.78Jul 29, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.01Jul 29, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 29, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.46Jul 29, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.05Jul 29, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$3.75Jul 29, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$0.00Jul 29, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.00Jul 29, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$0.00Jul 29, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$3.25Jul 29, 21:59 UTC
- MERGEUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$5.00Jul 29, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.28Jul 29, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4.27Jul 29, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.13Jul 29, 21:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
39 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $3.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 09:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 01:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.