0x81443d65a6c42b87d8761915b4344966863e8472
0x81443d65a6c42b87d8761915b4344966863e8472
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$475.19
Total PnL
$-89.35
Realised
$438.32
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?
104 shares @ 60.5¢·now 75.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$78.26
$15.34
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
90 shares @ 71.0¢·now 67.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$60.56
$-3.23
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
67 shares @ 59.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.37
$0.67
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
46 shares @ 88.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$38.87
$-1.61
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
51 shares @ 62.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$34.42
$2.81
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
52 shares @ 46.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$24.70
$0.78
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
51 shares @ 43.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$23.71
$1.78
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
20 shares @ 69.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.70
$4.90
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
93 shares @ 39.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.23
$-18.23
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
51 shares @ 35.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$17.59
$-0.26
Recent activity
- REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5$0.31Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox$0.89Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox$0.00Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)$0.96Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok 4.6 released by August 11, 2026?$10.80Aug 11, 11:04 UTC
- REWARD$6.01Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$23.00Aug 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$104.00Jul 29, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) Q2 Search & other revenue be above $66B?$8.73Jul 22, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$48.52Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$70.00Jul 20, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump attend 1 World Cup match?$75.00Jul 19, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 9?$50.98Jul 17, 17:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$52.00Jul 15, 23:10 UTC
- REWARD$32.55Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.9% in June?$50.00Jul 14, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 29?$0.00Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 1?$0.00Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C$0.00Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$0.00Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $10.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 15:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.