Thoughtful-Proportion
0x81924e30a4fe9e1eb715ade61296be6fa74c0664
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$46.00
Total PnL
$15.34
Realised
$14.66
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 20.8¢·now 25.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$25.27
$4.37
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2010 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.06
$2.26
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1518 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.28
$-1.29
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 29?
133 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
57 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.54
$0.34
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
108 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.14
$-0.16
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on July 29?
140 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.77
$-0.23
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on July 29?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
210 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.32
$-1.82
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$0.00Jul 29, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.06Jul 29, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Hundred: MI London vs London Spirit - Who wins the toss?$0.30Jul 29, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$0.00Jul 29, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$1.05Jul 29, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.48Jul 29, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?$1.05Jul 29, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.11Jul 29, 14:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.00Jul 29, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.23Jul 29, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.07Jul 29, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$1.39Jul 29, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$1.28Jul 29, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on July 29?$1.07Jul 29, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on July 29?$0.13Jul 29, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on July 29?$2.14Jul 29, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $69,000 on July 29?$1.07Jul 29, 14:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.00Jul 29, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.57Jul 29, 07:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 04:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.