Frayed-Tugboat-Contact
0x822ccb9a7d71ea4adaf2b8b1d0c652d02c9fa06a
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$62.11
Total PnL
$-824.49
Realised
$-8.77
Win rate
0%
70 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- INDIANA FEVER
Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky
27 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$19.73
$-0.27
- LAS VEGAS ACES
Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo
15 shares @ 81.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$13.07
$1.11
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
10 shares @ 74.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.64
$2.24
- YES
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
7 shares @ 90.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$6.62
$0.64
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
3 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.12
$0.12
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
3 shares @ 97.8¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$2.97
$-0.03
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 43.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.25
$1.25
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 58.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.16
$0.16
- MAYWEATHER
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.86
$-0.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMAtlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparks$25.32Aug 21, 04:39 UTC
- REDEEMQuebec City: Jan Choinski vs Taro Daniel$21.98Aug 20, 21:38 UTC
- REDEEMSeattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers$34.52Aug 20, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYLas Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo$12.07Aug 20, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky$20.27Aug 20, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Sky$20.31Aug 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparks$20.21Aug 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYQuebec City: Jan Choinski vs Taro Daniel$20.09Aug 20, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers$30.20Aug 20, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries$11.54Aug 18, 04:45 UTC
- REDEEMFremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows$13.37Aug 16, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics$28.37Aug 16, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun$27.85Aug 15, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League B: Singapore vs Uganda$26.27Aug 15, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMITF M15 Trier Men: Michael Agwi vs Liam Gavrielides$15.28Aug 15, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF M15 Trier Men: Michael Agwi vs Liam Gavrielides$11.15Aug 15, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF W35 Vigo Women: Yufei Ren vs Britt Du Pree$11.13Aug 15, 11:35 UTC
- REDEEMITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova Men: Tristan McCormick vs Philip Henning$11.49Aug 15, 11:05 UTC
- REDEEMITF W15 Bucharest 3 Women: Maria Sara Popa vs Diana-Ioana Simionescu$11.11Aug 15, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries$9.10Aug 15, 08:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 70 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
70 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $12.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 20:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 04:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 70 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.