Great-Skirt
0x82311db1134e2ac2912fca58c68800627da7cbc0
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$17.22
Total PnL
$-402.49
Realised
$110.30
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.70
$0.70
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
5 shares @ 57.7¢·now 47.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.46
$-0.54
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
29 shares @ 23.4¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.15
$-4.56
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.85
$-8.15
- YES
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.88
$-0.12
- YES
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.88
$-0.13
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.71
$-0.29
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
876 shares @ 19.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-171.84
- NO
Will Trump talk to María Corina Machado in January?
393 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on July 19?$2.76Jul 21, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 19?$2.00Jul 20, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 19?$1.00Jul 20, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$5.00Jul 20, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$5.21Jul 19, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.29Jul 19, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$3.00Jul 19, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$3.38Jul 19, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$3.96Jul 19, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$2.00Jul 18, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$1.00Jul 17, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$3.00Jul 17, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$3.00Jul 17, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$3.00Jul 17, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$1.00Jul 17, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$5.00Jul 17, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?$1.35Jul 16, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$6.00Jul 16, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLAbbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?$1.45Jul 15, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$2.55Jul 15, 22:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 13:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 12:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.