Wallet digest

active

Activity score

57/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-250.56

Realised

$3.25

Win rate

67%

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will Adam Delgado be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Vance say "Nuclear" during his Rocky Mount visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Vance say "Biden" 4+ times during his Rocky Mount visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?
970 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-0.97
NO
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?
498 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Vance say "Israel" during his Rocky Mount visit?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$1.06Jun 22, 15:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$0.99Jun 22, 15:04 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.00Jun 22, 15:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.05Jun 22, 15:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.91Jun 22, 14:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.04Jun 22, 14:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$1.05Jun 22, 14:51 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$1.81Jun 22, 14:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$1.04Jun 22, 14:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.52Jun 22, 14:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.04Jun 22, 14:41 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.79Jun 22, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.04Jun 22, 14:36 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$2.13Jun 22, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.05Jun 22, 14:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.77Jun 22, 14:29 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$1.06Jun 20, 17:29 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$1.04Jun 20, 17:21 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$2.40Jun 20, 17:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$1.04Jun 20, 17:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry48 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 20, 15:46 UTC
Last active: Jun 22, 15:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:10:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data