Lighthearted-Desert
0x82adf2b738643e94cc70b3ca9165aad38724c6f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$52.33
Total PnL
$-47.67
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 60.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.42
$1.42
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.87
$0.87
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
11 shares @ 93.8¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.25
$0.25
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
11 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- NO
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.78
$-0.22
- YES
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?
16 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
15 shares @ 66.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
14 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
13 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$10.16Jun 23, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?$10.04Jun 23, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$10.00Jun 23, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?$10.03Jun 23, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$10.00Jun 23, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$13.70Jun 23, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$15.15Jun 23, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?$0.00Jun 6, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?$10.64Jun 6, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? $11.63Apr 16, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?$5.58Apr 16, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?$0.00Mar 17, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?$0.00Mar 10, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Progressive Citizens' Party in Liechtenstein win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?$0.00Mar 10, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$6.25Mar 10, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?$10.16Mar 10, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Union win the most seats in the next German election?$10.64Mar 10, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kostas Tasoulas be next Greek President?$10.07Feb 13, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?$4.80Feb 9, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$5.00Feb 9, 12:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $8.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 4, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 09:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.