Eager-Creche
0x83272599df0be8f16cc925d5c64d39246fe066df
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-3.89
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 29 - January 4)
3066 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
1584 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-167.87
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
1129 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1104 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-195.32
- YES
Will Anaconda make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?
1013 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-70.05
- YES
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- CERUNDOLO
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
593 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-403.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
527 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
515 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $71.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 2, 21:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.